Stark: Bryce Harper is back with the Phillies. But what lies ahead?

June 26, 2024

CLEARWATER, Fla. — It was 10:16 a.m. on Thursday, the first day of the rest of Bryce Harper’s career. He is still the center of the Phillies’ universe. But thanks to a little detour we call Tommy John Surgery, spring training began 21 days later for Harper than for everyone else on this roster.

“Just good to be back,” he said as he plopped down on a picnic bench outside the Phillies’ clubhouse on Day One of the Bryce Is Back tour.

It all looked so familiar, but only if you were viewing this scene from the front row. Take a ride with us now beyond the upper deck, to the view from 30,000 feet. Then think about how much the world has spun in so many different ways since the last time Bryce Harper was spotted at a ballpark, in Game 6 of the World Series.

His team now overflows with big names and big dreams. … His sport is suddenly awash in dollars, and it has led to a flurry of free-agent deals that dwarf his. … That game he plays is swirling in rule changes that will significantly impact Harper himself — whenever his right elbow is healthy enough for him to play again.

“Good for baseball,” Harper said at one point, when the subject of those monster contracts came up.

But you know what else is good for baseball? That dude, Bryce Harper.

He reminded us last October that he is a special member of the baseball species, rising to one gigantic moment after another and firing off the first six-homer, 13-extra-base-hit, 1.100 OPS postseason by any National League player in postseason history. And then there was this — an epic baseball moment, a memory for a lifetime.

It was his Bedlam at the Bank NLCS moment, a magical swing of the bat that propelled his team into a World Series nobody saw coming. He said Thursday that when he kicked back this winter, he watched one at-bat from that postseason. Want to take a wild guess which one?

“I watched my bat against the Padres,” he admitted. “But that’s about it. I mean, when you reflect on things, it’s great, right? But I like to keep things behind me a little bit. I like to kind of move forward and get going.”

OK, so let’s take him up on that. Let’s look forward, at Bryce in 2023 and beyond. The next couple of months will be murky. But after that? Could be quite a ride, through the new universe he is about to visit.

Bryce in 2023

Will you even see him on a field this spring? In a game? No chance.

Taking batting practice? That’s possible, said his manager, Rob Thomson, on Thursday.

Maybe live BP, off a real pitcher?

“Probably not,” Thomson said. “Maybe at the very end.”

But even on day one, there was slight progress. For the first time since a foul ball against Ryan Pressly in the final inning of the World Series, Harper took a swing at a real baseball Thursday — 16 of them, to be exact. They were sitting on a tee, but it’s something. The road back from Tommy John surgery is a day-to-day journey, and not one even someone like him can hurry.

“Just trying to take it day by day,” he said, “and be grateful for the day that I’m in.”

It’s hard to forecast what comes after this game-free spring. But if he follows the same rehab path as Shohei Ohtani, who had Tommy John Surgery after the 2018 season, Harper would be back, DH-ing in his first game in the big leagues, on June 29.

The Phillies have said only that he’s expected back “before the All-Star break.” His teammates laughed at that timeline Thursday, expecting him to will himself back onto the field well before that. But you know who wasn’t buying that talk? Harper himself.

“We’re not going to rush,” he said Thursday. “We’re going to be smart about it.”

But when he returns, sparks will fly, and his team is already stoked thinking about it.

“We’re going to get a great player back whenever he’s healthy,” said Rhys Hoskins. “I know that the line’s going to be that he’s going to be our biggest trade acquisition right at the deadline. Me personally, knowing the superhuman that he is, I think he’s going to be back before then. Maybe. Hopefully.”

What will become of the Bryce shimmy?

But when he does return, whatever day or month that is, the game he loves won’t be quite the same as the game he remembers. It’s something to watch.

According to Statcast/Baseball Savant, only 10 hitters in the big leagues took more time between pitches than Bryce Harper did last year with no one on base. That is going to be an issue.

The rest of the sport has a whole spring training to adapt to the pitch clock. Not him. He’ll have a little time in the minor leagues in a couple of months. But we’re talking about a guy with a routine. The gloves get tightened. The plate gets tapped on both sides. The knees flex. Then he shimmies into his place in the box. Some of that is going to have to go.

“We talked about that today,” said his hitting coach, Kevin Long. “He’s going to have to come up with something, and he will. But it’s going to be different. And he’s going to feel like, wow, this game is moving fast. He’s very methodical in the way he goes about it. And I love that. But this takes away from that. So he’ll have to adapt to it. And he will.”

Harper knows that hurdle is looming. He has no idea yet how he’ll clear it.

“Once I get out there and once I get playing,” he said, “I’ve just got to figure out kind of what works for me.”

But in his memory banks, that NLCS home run is always playing. And when it appears on his screen, he doesn’t just see the baseball and the bedlam. He remembers the drama of the at-bat that led up to the blast. And one thing he remembers is that that drama was timeless. Literally.

“The thing about baseball is, like, every moment, it really says: Take a deep breath, relax, take a deep breath,” he said. “Pitching, hitting, everything. So (we were) the only sport without a pitch clock. … That’s the beauty about our game. We weren’t on the clock. But at the same time, that’s how they feel that our game is going to get better… So you have to respect that at some point.”

Is it possible he’s now underpaid?

It was just four springs ago that Harper signed a then-historic contract: 13 years, $330 million. It was the longest free-agent deal in baseball history. It would pay him the most total dollars of any free agent in history.

Of course, nothing in baseball is forever. But there’s nothing less everlasting than baseball-contract history. So now look.

That $330 million? It’s now the seventh-largest total dollar payout in baseball. Passing him just this winter: Aaron Judge ($360 million) and Manny Machado ($350 million).

Harper’s $25.4-million average annual value? That now ranks 41st in baseball history. He was passed by 10 different players in A.A.V. just in this offseason.

“It’s just the way it is,” said Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski. “We’ve all seen the ups and downs of the market, and you never know what happens. Last year we were coming off a new Basic Agreement getting settled. It meant more revenue getting into the game, and that usually drives salaries. Now, how long will it drive salaries? I don’t know. That’s another story. But just, the game changes.”

Here’s one more thing that has changed: In 2019, Harper and Manny Machado went through the winter as the marquee free-agent tag team. They emerged as the first two $300-million free agents in history. It meant they would be compared for the next decade and beyond. But then …

This spring, Machado leveraged the looming opt-out in his contract to cash in one more time. The six years and $180 million he had left on his original deal? Ripped up. In its place? A new 11-year, $350-million extension that will raise the total value of his time in San Diego to $470 million.

But there won’t be any opting out in Bryce Harper’s future. Back in 2019, he told his agent Scott Boras he wasn’t interested in that. And now, even in the wake of Machado’s second payday, Harper says he’s cool with the decision he made back then.

“I made the decision to stay with this team for a long time,” he said. “So I think being able to stay with the organization for a long time, let the fans know that I was going to be here for a long time. That was my main thing. I didn’t want to have to go through all the craziness of ‘Where’s he going … what’s he going to do?’ … I wanted this organization, this team, to know, and I wanted the fans to know, that I was going to be here for the long haul no matter what.”

But he admitted he made that decision much to the chagrin of Boras, if only because “Scott came up with the opt-out, right?”

“So that was a hard thing,” he said, “for both of us to kind of sit there and say, ‘Hey, you know, we’re not going to have one. But at the same time, you’re going to give this organization all you want and all you need.’ I want to play well into my 40s. That’s always been the dream and the goal. Well, I’m here until I’m 38, so we’ll see what happens.”

Can his 30s match his 20s?

Let’s say this again about Thursday. It truly was the first day of the rest of Bryce Harper’s career.

He’s on the other side of 30 now. His elbow is finally reconstructed and on the mend. He knows where he’ll be for the next nine seasons. So what lies ahead? It’s a fascinating question.

“I think he’s going to the Hall of Fame,” his hitting coach said. “I think he’s that good. And I think he’s that talented.”

You think it’s too soon for Kevin Long to make a prediction like that? Maybe not. Through his age-29 season, Harper is looking at this array of career numbers:

285 HR
606 extra-base hits
.523 Slugging Pct.
.913 OPS

What does that portend? Well, if you don’t count Albert Pujols (not eligible yet) or players with PED ties, every retired player in history who matched or beat all those numbers before his age-30 season now has a plaque in Cooperstown. That group: Mickey Mantle, Henry Aaron, Frank Robinson, Mel Ott, Jimmie Foxx, Eddie Mathews and Ken Griffey Jr.

And how about this: Kevin Long thinks Harper’s 30s could be even more productive than his 20s. That obviously doesn’t happen much — “but I think they could,” Long said.

“You know, he was a little up and down in his 20s,” said Long, who was also Harper’s hitting coach in Washington. “So I think he can be more consistent. And if he has that consistency level and that plays out — hey, his swing is already way better. He stays into his legs and stays behind the ball. He doesn’t jump out nearly as much as he used to. So could he be better in his 30s? He could.”

Plus, there’s now a been-there, done-that October element embedded in Harper’s DNA that is also tantalizing to the team that employs him.

“I learned something about him,” Dombrowski said. “It’s the first time that I saw him in October. And it didn’t surprise me what he did, or how good he was, or how he rose to the occasion, because they were big games and he’s a big-game player. And he’s a guy, he loves the big game. He hits good pitching. He does everything well.

“But he rises to the occasion. And there are very few like that. He’s a superstar. So when he came up (before that NLCS-clinching home run) against the Padres, I was sitting next to my son and I said, ‘This is the type of situation that Big Papi would hit a home run.’ I said, ‘This is where legends are made.'”

You know what happened. But you know where legends are really made? They’re made when their teams win every year, not one year. And that, Dombrowski said, is why Harper truly remains the man at the center of the Phillies’ universe.

They have added Trea Turner and a group of star-power names around him. But there is no question in Dave Dombrowski’s mind which luminary in his star collection is most capable of lifting the group around him.

“I think it gives us a chance to have a really good club for a long time,” Dombrowski said, “because I think when you have a guy like Bryce, he takes the pressure off other people’s backs because you always know he’s there.”

Well, technically speaking, they couldn’t say that before Thursday, because, for the first three weeks of spring training, he was the one guy who wasn’t there. But then, out he strolled to sit atop that picnic bench. He looked into the cameras and said, “It’s great to be back.” But where the rest of us were looking is into his crystal ball.

(Top photo: Kyle Ross / USA Today)

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